Parker's Blog

South China Morning Post article here

Some thoughts from the peanut gallery

Key words: “basically” stable. Last I looked – modifiers to the word stable were at best illusory.
Parker’s Translation: the yuan will appreciate, but will do so “modestly”

Parker’s guess (now about 60days old) that it’ll happen before July.

PROBLEM:
While it’ll appease the US government and idiots like … well, all of them, it’ll cause prices to go up at Walmart. So the vaunted “Main Street” that the US’ Democratic Party LOVES to talk about all the time will not like that.

Imagine the foolish furniture and sock factory workers in NC (who are still whining about the Commie Chinese) when EVERYTHING at Walmart goes up in value. Then what will they bitch about?

The double edge to the sword is that while the currency appreciation will appease the talking heads, it’ll weaken the Chinese economy. Practically every other day some leading paragon of journalizm writes that the Chinese economy is too export focused. Yes, we all know this. Many of us know that the ‘profit’ that the majority of factories make in China is solely due to the fact that the Chinese government provides rebates for exported goods; take away the rebate, and remove their profit margin. (It’s the bane of the corporate social responsibility focused companies).

So what will happen when the same factory – who now receives USD 8 for some ‘fashion wear’ receives a different amount of money after the appreciation?

If you’re not familiar with currency exchange on a daily basis … now they’re receiving 6.86 RMB per US dollar. So, 8 x 6.86 = 54.88 Chinese Yuan (RMB). So if there is a 5% change, then the factory will receive only 52.14 Chinese Yuan. a 5% drop. Imagine your company – needing to supply the same goods / services – but due to international pressure, 100% of your revenue suddenly drops by 5%. How happy would your boss be? How about your next bonus check? What if your factory was barely profitable now?

More importantly, how about the next few months of new orders – think the quality will be the same? Think the factory will push for a 5% increase in revenue for the same order?

Eventually some of the currency appreciation will be pushed back on the consumers (as why would they NOT push it back? Who says that the Chinese should net 5% less? They won’t agree to that).

Chinese Held Treasuries

The USA has begged for more money regularly – and now by appreciating the Yuan, the Chinese will receive LESS back for their trouble. Interesting long term political strategizing going on there.

Can some explain why they’d be interested in continuing to lend us more and more money (don’t forget that they started lending to us when it took more than 8.5 Yuan to buy a dollar… that’s a 20% LOSS in currency exchange alone) in the future?

(The only good thing is that there are no other markets on earth that can handle the volume that the Chinese have to invest)

Just my Chinese Yuan 0.13 (US $0.02) opinion

I look forward to hearing how this helps anyone.

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0/?vgnextoid=b2c4e01e98847210VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD&ss=Companies&s=Business

Traumatic Accidents: Recovery

It would be interesting - had I time - to do some research on the different steps in 'recovery from a catastrophic accident'.

I often wonder how many stages there would be... and what they would be labeled. Interesting how we like things in even numbers, and the AA '12 Steps' come to mind for many people I've asked.

March 3rd, 2010 - My 41st birthday
It's been 14months and 9 days since my accident. Physically I'm a lot better than I was at 8am on Christmas day 2008.

That morning, after the accident I had four bones sticking through my skin*. My femur, my tibia, my fibula, and my 2nd toe - all broke in varying stages destruction and due to the violence of the accident stuck through my skin.

Obviously, I had lots of surgeries (nine from 12 Dec 2008 through 14 Jan 2009), and another one mid June 2009. I had lots of blood transfusions (I am allergic to somethings now that I've had the transfusions, and as the guy that NEVER got cold, now I get cold much more easily). I had the joy of around 50 days in hospital beds, hundreds of X-rays, untold luxurious needle stickings, etc.

And like you, I NEVER EVER thought it could happen to me. Who could possibly imagine on Christmas morning - while taking your 7 year old to school - you would get run down by an idiot. Especially one who doesn't bother to look left, while illegally turning left INTO THE ONCOMING TRAFFIC'S LANE!

My recovery has segued through 13 months of crutches, all the related physical therapy, the itchy scars (there are more than 36 inches of scars), etc.

Believe me when I say I realize (and reflect) every day on how lucky I am to be alive, how lucky I am to not have severed my spine, and not to mention how thankful I am that I was able to keep my son behind me - he walked away with a scratch on his right hand.

My left leg is about 1.5 centimeters (1/2 inch to 5/8 inch) shorter than my right leg. And as I've had 3 different orthopaedic surgeons at three different hospitals tell me - unasked - that I must never run, jump, etc again (as my tibia was so badly broken, that the impact of running - even when the bone is 'healed' will result in it re-shattering). The third time was pretty sobering.

I stopped using my crutches in favor of a cane ... and the only thing that I know I have to do is go to the orthopaedic doctor that can measure me for a shoe insert. Frankly, I've not been able to force myself to go.

Self-Identification ... aka ... Acceptance
I have worked on accepting my situation. I am not 'angry' at Mr. Chen (the aforementioned ass that drove so recklessly that day). I am not happy with him ... but I would rather be me - suffering from the accident - than remember everyday that I almost killed some luckless SOB, and maimed him for life.

I'm not angry with the pathetic traffic system in Taiwan - the fact that Mr. Chen could run me down and not be ticketed is disgusting. Not happy with it ... but the fact is that institutionalized racism is everywhere (ask a black in America's south), and it'll always be more politic for a policeman to give the white guy a ticket than the Taiwanese in that situation. Afterall, the odds are better that the Taiwanese guy's relatives are important ...

While I recognize that there was a great chance for infection ... and that the first hospital kept me alive .... = Good thing. However, now that I've been the victim of malpractice TWICE and I've been left with my leg shorter, I will definitely pursue legal recourse (with the desire to be to force the hospital to deal with its deficiencies... why should I be handicapped AFTER the summer surgeries? Because they didn't prepare correctly for the ELECTIVE surgery).

The thought that I repeatedly have is, am I 'handicapped' or am I 'disabled'? I find myself debating the difference between being the 'odds on favorite' versus 'the underdog' ... or 'not abled' enough.

Next steps? (intentional double entendre)
Get my insole inserty thing made.
Keep practicing not running.
Swim, exercise more
Try to accept that my 39th Christmas present was (probably) a life long disability
Keep laughing and enjoying life.

PAF

ParkerFairfield AT G mai l DOT com

*My femur had a large section -about 8cms (3 inches)- which was literally pulverized. Due to it instantly being 'gone' - there was connecetion to the lower leg, and the muscles coming down from my abdomen forced the bone up through the skin.

My tibia was turned into five large pieces - one of which stuck through the inside of my leg just above my ankle. The fibula broke in a similar area and stuck mostly through.

My 2nd toe (next to the big toe) broke in the middle of my foot, and poke through - but didn't pierce my boot.